What future for dryland populations?

I have introduced concepts and provided evidence for climate change in exacerbating desertification and that anthropogenic activities may further enhance the associated environmental changes. With all this in mind, what is the future for desert occupation? Overcultivation, overgrazing, land use changes, unsustainable practices all induce a host of feedbacks including nutrient depletion, reduction of moisture-holding capabilities of soil, mobilisation of sediments etc etc (Mouat, 2008). In turn cultural and societal routines may be impinged through, for example, the exhaustion of food and water resources leading to malnourishment, famine, disease and so on. The effects of environmental change are both varied and extremely serious and may develop on an exponential basis according to those such as Charney, and recovery policies may be difficult to implement.

Critical to the future of dryland populations is our openness to adaptation. Without adaptation humans must migrate or risk death. By adaptation I mean a willingness to develop and utilise coping mechanisms (new technologies, methods etc) and perhaps most importantly, a preparedness to adopt an alternative lifestyle that may not be complicit with previously apparent traditional heritage or cultures. Mouat and Lancaster (2008) highlight the inextricable linkages between environmental security and human security.

One of the main concerns, however, is that not everybody is able to adapt or migrate. Meze-Hausken (2000) provides a table that explains the factors that may influence migration during times of drought:

The tables give great insight in to strategies that may be employed to help societies out of trouble in drylands. Policies should focus on varied and appropriate crop planting, family size and planning issues, water availability, civil unrest and war, and the number of survival strategies they themselves are aware of. It is highly apparent that there is a distinct lack of focused and directed education in these areas. Is education the most appropriate and sustainable dryland population management solution?